Overview

Nearly all of Alberta’s revenue streams have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global oil price crash.

The revenue forecast has declined significantly in all 3 fiscal years compared to Budget 2020 projections.

Download: 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 1.5 MB)

Forecast

Provincial revenue is projected to be $41.4 billion in 2020-21, or $8.6 billion lower than estimated in Budget 2020, and 10% lower than in 2019-20.

Table 1. 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement Revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources 2019-20 Actual Budget 2020 Forecast 2020-21 Mid-year Forecast Change from Budget 2021-22 Target 2022-23 Target
Income and other Taxes 21,098 22,887 18,227 (4,660) 19,094 20,923
Non-renewable resource revenue 5,937 5,090 1,669 (3,421) 2,491 5,055
Transfers from Government of Canada 9,072 9,110 11,337 2,227 9,903 9,731
Investment income 2,828 2,630 1,919 (711) 1,962 2,250
Net income from government business enterprises (225) 2,358 1,194 (1,164) 1,666 1,915
Premiums, fees and licences 3,929 4,194 4,030 (164) 4,162 4,291
Other 3,585 3,726 3,038 (688) 3,386 3,476
Total revenue 46,224 49,996 41,414 (8,582) 42,664 47,641

Non-renewable resource revenue

Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to decrease in response to the global oil price crash. Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $1.7 billion in 2020-21, down $3.4 billion from the Budget 2020 forecast and $4.3 billion lower than in 2019-20.

For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.

Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Resource revenue 2019-20 Actual Budget 2020 Forecast 2020-21 Mid-year Forecast Change from Budget 2021-22 Target 2022-23 Target
Bitumen royalty 4,089 3,211 896 (2,315) 1,335 3,180
Crude oil royalty 1,175 1,135 397 (738) 530 845
Natural gas and by-products royalty 371 429 192 (237) 389 733
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases 120 177 36 (141) 109 171
Rentals and fees/coal royalty 182 137 148 11 128 126
Total resource revenue 5,937 5,090 1,669 (3,421) 2,491 5,055

Income taxes

Household incomes and corporate profits have deteriorated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, tax revenue is forecast at $18.2 billion in 2020-21, $4.7 billion lower than expected at budget.

About 90% of this expected reduction is due to a severe decline in personal and corporate income tax revenue.

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is estimated at about $10.7 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of $1.8 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Business taxes

Corporate income tax is forecast at nearly $2.2 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of about $2.3 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Tax revenue

Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

Revenue Sources 2019-20 Actual Budget 2020 Forecast 2020-21 Mid-year Forecast Change from Budget 2021-22 Target 2022-23 Target
Personal Income tax 11,244 12,566 10,753 (1,813) 11,686 12,535
Corporate income tax 4,107 4,539 2,188 (2,351) 1,666 2,391
Other taxes 5,747 5,782 5,286 (496) 5,742 5,997
Total 21,098 22,887 18,227 (4,660) 19,094 20,923

Budget documents

Budget 2020 Fiscal Plan (PDF, 6.7 MB)

Budget 2020 Highlights (PDF, 1.7 MB)

More budget information

A plan to get Albertans back to work, make life better and stand up for Alberta.

A summary of Alberta’s Budget 2020 economic forecast and analysis.

Budget 2020 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.

Budget 2020 continues to optimize Alberta’s tax system.