Nearly all of Alberta’s revenue streams have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global oil price crash.
The revenue forecast has declined significantly in all 3 fiscal years compared to Budget 2020 projections.
Download: 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 1.5 MB)
Provincial revenue is projected to be $41.4 billion in 2020-21, or $8.6 billion lower than estimated in Budget 2020, and 10% lower than in 2019-20.
Table 1. 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement Revenue (millions of dollars)
|Revenue sources||2019-20 Actual||Budget 2020 Forecast||2020-21 Mid-year Forecast||Change from Budget||2021-22 Target||2022-23 Target|
|Income and other Taxes||21,098||22,887||18,227||(4,660)||19,094||20,923|
|Non-renewable resource revenue||5,937||5,090||1,669||(3,421)||2,491||5,055|
|Transfers from Government of Canada||9,072||9,110||11,337||2,227||9,903||9,731|
|Net income from government business enterprises||(225)||2,358||1,194||(1,164)||1,666||1,915|
|Premiums, fees and licences||3,929||4,194||4,030||(164)||4,162||4,291|
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to decrease in response to the global oil price crash. Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $1.7 billion in 2020-21, down $3.4 billion from the Budget 2020 forecast and $4.3 billion lower than in 2019-20.
For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
|Resource revenue||2019-20 Actual||Budget 2020 Forecast||2020-21 Mid-year Forecast||Change from Budget||2021-22 Target||2022-23 Target|
|Crude oil royalty||1,175||1,135||397||(738)||530||845|
|Natural gas and by-products royalty||371||429||192||(237)||389||733|
|Bonuses and sales of Crown leases||120||177||36||(141)||109||171|
|Rentals and fees/coal royalty||182||137||148||11||128||126|
|Total resource revenue||5,937||5,090||1,669||(3,421)||2,491||5,055|
Household incomes and corporate profits have deteriorated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, tax revenue is forecast at $18.2 billion in 2020-21, $4.7 billion lower than expected at budget.
About 90% of this expected reduction is due to a severe decline in personal and corporate income tax revenue.
Personal income tax
Personal income tax revenue is estimated at about $10.7 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of $1.8 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.
Corporate income tax is forecast at nearly $2.2 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of about $2.3 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
|Revenue Sources||2019-20 Actual||Budget 2020 Forecast||2020-21 Mid-year Forecast||Change from Budget||2021-22 Target||2022-23 Target|
|Personal Income tax||11,244||12,566||10,753||(1,813)||11,686||12,535|
|Corporate income tax||4,107||4,539||2,188||(2,351)||1,666||2,391|
More budget information
A plan to get Albertans back to work, make life better and stand up for Alberta.
A summary of Alberta’s Budget 2020 economic forecast and analysis.
Budget 2020 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Budget 2020 continues to optimize Alberta’s tax system.