Overview

The Alberta economy continues to be resilient, but interest rate increases, high prices and slower global economic growth are creating headwinds. Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is forecast to grow 2.8% this year, a moderation from last year’s exceptionally strong pace of 5.0%. This is in line with budget expectations but slightly lower than the first quarter.

Oil and gas leading the way

Growth is being led by the oil and gas sector, where solid energy prices and the anticipated increase in Alberta’s takeaway capacity next year are driving spending and production. Business investment intentions are strong and employment prospects remain positive in the province. Homebuilding activity took off in the third quarter, suggesting some relief is coming for Alberta’s tight housing market. However, the impact of higher interest rates and elevated prices is working its way through the economy.

Consumer confidence has pulled back sharply, leading households to curtail spending. Consumers and businesses also continue to grapple with rising costs. Slower global demand is dampening non-energy exports and contributing to the volatility in oil prices.

Table 1. Energy price and currency assumptions

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Fiscal year2022-23
Actual
2023-24
Budget
2023-24
Mid-year Forecast
2024-25 Forecast2025-26 Forecast
WTI oil price
(US$/barrel)
89.6979.0079.0076.0073.50
Light heavy
differential
(US$/barrel)
20.7719.5017.0015.3014.70
Exchange rate
(US cents/
Cdn$)
75.6076.2074.1076.4078.60

Table 2. Economic assumptions

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Calendar year2022
Actual
2023
Mid-year Forecast
2024
Forecast
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
Economic growth
(% change in real GDP)
5.02.82.63.02.8
Employment
(% change)
5.23.32.52.52.2
Unemployment rate (%)5.85.96.26.15.9

More budget information

Find out what Budget 2023 means for you.

Revenue projections from taxes, transfers, investment income and resources.

Budget 2023 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.

Summary of government spending according to Budget 2023.