Overview
The outlook for Alberta’s economy has improved since Budget 2026, primarily as a result of higher commodity prices. Strong activity in the energy sector this year has been accompanied by a pickup in manufacturing and agriculture exports, while progress on major projects is boosting investment and construction activity. Job gains and consumer spending are exceeding expectations, and the slowdown in population growth and housing construction has been slightly more moderate than anticipated. Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is now forecast to grow by 2.3 % in 2026, an increase of 0.5 percentage points from budget.
While the outlook for Alberta’s economy has improved, it remains highly uncertain. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and the risk of further disruptions to global energy markets could prolong inflationary pressures and weigh on growth in major trading partners. At the same time, significant uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade policy and global economic conditions continues to pose risks to investment and export demand.
Resources
Population growth
Alberta’s population reached 5.06 million as of April 1, 2026, up 47,000 people, or 0.9 %, from a year earlier. While this was the slowest annual growth rate since 2022, it remained positive.
Migration from other provinces continued to provide support. Alberta’s population is now forecast to grow 1.2 % in the 2026 census year, slightly above the budget forecast of 1.1 %, but less than half of the 2.5 % increase recorded in 2025.
Population growth is expected to strengthen modestly in 2027 after reaching a low in 2026, while major projects continue to support investment and economic activity. Together, these factors are expected to lift real GDP growth to 2.5 % in 2027, up from the 2.3 % projected at budget.
Energy price and economic assumptions
Table 1. Fiscal year assumptions for energy prices
| Fiscal year | 2026-27 | Q 1 |
|---|---|---|
| WTI (US$/barrel) | 60.50 | 73.50 |
| Light heavy differential (US$/barrel) | 13.00 | 14.80 |
| Exchange rate (US¢/Cdn$) | 73.0 | 72.1 |
Table 2. Economic assumptions
| Calendar year | 2025* | 2026 Budget | Q 1 | 2027 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Real GDP (%) | 2.5 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Nominal GDP (%) | 1.8 | 1.9 | 8.4 | 1.6 |
| Employment (thousands) | 2,590 | 2,639 | 2,668 | 2,728 |
* denotes estimates
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2026 means for you.
Revenue projections from taxes, transfers, investment income and resources.
Budget 2026 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2026.