Overview
Alberta’s economic outlook remains solid although risks are rising. Real GDP growth is forecast to accelerate to 2.9% in 2024, up from 2.3% growth in 2023. The energy sector continues to drive growth in business activity and output on the back of increased pipeline capacity. Alberta’s exceptionally strong population growth is boosting residential construction activity. Easing price pressures and falling interest rates are providing some relief to households. However, demand concerns are weighing on global oil prices. Uncertainties related to more protectionist trade policies and escalating geopolitical tensions have also increased and pose downside risks to the global economic outlook.
Alberta’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is forecast to moderate but remain solid at 2.7% in 2025. Population growth is set to slow to 2.5% in the 2025 census year, down from the 4.4% surge experienced in 2024, as the federal government changes its targets on immigration and non-permanent residents. While a lower population growth will be a drag on consumer spending, it should provide some relief to Alberta’s tight housing market and help dampen shelter inflation.
Resources
- Read the 2024-25 mid-year economic update.
Population growth decelerating
Following 2 years of exceptional population gains, Alberta is expected to see population growth slow in 2025 as the federal government implements new immigration targets. Alberta’s population is expected to grow at 2.5% in the 2025 census year, much slower than the 4.4% increase in 2024. The province is expected to continue adding jobs next year although at a much slower pace of 2.1% in 2025, down from 2.9% forecast in 2024. Even with the slower population growth next year, the unemployment rate is expected to average 7.4% in 2025.
Table 1. Energy price and currency assumptions
| Fiscal year | 2023-24 Actual | 2024-25 Budget | 2024-25 Q2 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| WTI oil price (US$/barrel) | 77.83 | 74.00 | 74.00 |
| Light heavy differential (US$/barrel) | 17.29 | 16.00 | 14.00 |
| Exchange rate (US cents/ Cdn$) | 74.20 | 75.90 | 73.30 |
Table 2. Economic assumptions
| Calendar year | 2023 Actual | 2024 Q2 Forecast | 2025 Q2 Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|
| Economic growth (% change in real GDP) | 2.3 | 3.0 | 2.7 |
| Employment (% change) | 3.6 | 2.9 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment rate (%) | 5.9 | 7.2 | 7.4 |
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2024 means for you.
Revenue projections from taxes, transfers, investment income and resources.
Budget 2024 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2024.