Revenue

Overview

Alberta’s revenue has increased substantially over the last 2 years, after the global impacts of COVID-19 on economic activity and energy prices caused a sharp drop in 2020-21. As pandemic restrictions began easing in 2021, energy prices began rising. Revenue reached a then-record $68.3 billion in 2021-22.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February of 2022 further boosted oil and natural gas prices, elevating revenue to a new record of $76.1 billion in 2022-23. At the same time, the global economy has been hit with severe inflation, interest rates hikes and the risk of recession. This has dampened energy prices and smothered financial markets.

Total revenue in 2023-24 is forecast at $70.7 billion, a decrease of $5.4 billion from the record-high amount of $76.1 billion in 2022-23.

Resources

Budget 2023 Revenue

Forecast

Total revenue of $71.1 billion is forecast in the First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement, $0.5 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2023, mainly due to increased income tax revenue, investment income and federal transfers, partially offset by lower resource revenue and a larger loss on Sturgeon Refinery operations.

Read the 2023-24 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 1 MB).

Table 1. Total Revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2022-23 Actual	2023-24 Budget	2023-24 Forecast	Change from Budget
Personal income tax	13,925	14,069	14,666	597
Corporate income tax	8,167	5,911	6,800	889
Other tax revenue	4,432	5,012	4,473	(539)
Resource revenue – Bitumen	16,879	12,555	13,070	515
Resource revenue – Other	8,363	5,806	4,597	(1,209)
Federal transfers	11,363	12,552	12,772	220
Investment income	1,326	3,154	3,679	525
Net income from business enterprises	2,481	2,727	2,159	(568)
Premiums, fees and licences	4,657	5,040	5,042	2
Other revenue	4,527	3,827	3,886	59
Total revenue	76,120	70,653	71,144	491

Non-renewable resource revenue

Resource revenue is forecast to be $17.7 billion in 2023-24, down $694 million from budget and $7.6 billion from 2022-23. The decrease is primarily due to lower natural gas, natural gas by-product, and crude royalties, partially offset by bitumen royalties.

Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2022-23 Actual	2023-24 Estimate	2023-24 Forecast	Change from Budget
Bitumen royalty	16,879	12,555	13,070	515
Crude oil royalty	3,968	2,905	2,827	(78)
Natural gas and by-products royalty	3,595	2,465	1,300	(1,165)
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases	465	307	294	(13)
Rentals and fees / coal royalty	335	129	176	47
Total resource revenue	25,242	18,361	17,667	(694)

Tax revenue

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is forecast at $14.7 billion, an increase of $597 million from budget, mainly due to stronger 2022 tax assessments and an upward revision to personal income for 2023, propelled by population and employment gains.

Corporate income tax

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $6.8 billion, $889 million higher than Budget 2023, but $1.4 billion lower than the $8.2 billion record last year. Although corporate profits are forecast to weaken this year from budget as a result of lower oil prices, the record high corporate income tax revenue from 2022 has driven up the base used to forecast future years.

Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

Revenue sources	2022-23 Actual	2023-24 Estimate	2023-24 Forecast	Change from Budget
Personal income tax	13,925	14,069	14,666	597
Corporate income tax	8,167	5,911	6,800	889
Education property tax	2,537	2,504	2,504	-
Other taxes	1,895	2,508	1,969	(539)
Total tax revenue	26,524	24,992	25,939	947