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Overview
Alberta’s economic position as a small, open economy with a large natural resource base makes it sensitive to global economic conditions beyond the province. Alberta’s government introduced a renewed fiscal framework in 2023 to help manage volatile and unpredictable government revenue.
Resources
Forecast
Total revenue of $72,964 billion is forecast in 2025-26, $1.2 billion lower than estimated in Budget 2025. This decrease is mainly due to lower crude oil prices and a stronger Canadian dollar, partially offset by a narrower light-heavy differential.
Table 1. Total revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2024-25 Actual | 2025-26 Budget | 2025-26 Q2 Forecast | Change from budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tax revenue | 30,356 | 28,837 | 28,640 | (197) |
| Non-renewable resource revenue | 21,986 | 17,067 | 15,416 | (1,652) |
| Federal transfers | 12,618 | 13,305 | 13,527 | 222 |
| Fund assets/investment income | 4,803 | 2,883 | 3,397 | 514 |
| Premiums, fees and licences | 5,504 | 5,756 | 5,777 | 21 |
| Other income | 7,202 | 6,289 | 6,207 | (82) |
| Total revenue | 82,469 | 74,138 | 72,964 | (1,174) |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue in 2025-26 is forecast to be $15.4 billion, down $1.7 billion from budget. This decrease is mainly due to lower bitumen royalties, with additional reductions in conventional oil, natural gas and by-products royalties.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average US$61.50 per barrel in 2025-26, $6.50 per barrel lower than previously estimated.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2024-25 Actual | 2025-26 Budget | 2025-26 Forecast | Change from budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitumen royalty | 17,167 | 12,830 | 11,864 | (966) |
| Crude oil royalty | 3,037 | 2,510 | 2,344 | (166) |
| Natural gas and by-products royalty | 1,220 | 1,228 | 728 | (500) |
| Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 385 | 361 | 322 | (39) |
| Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 178 | 138 | 157 | 19 |
| Total resource revenue | 21,986 | 17,067 | 15,416 | (1,652) |
Tax revenue
Tax revenue is forecast at $28.6 billion in 2025-26, a decrease of $197 million from budget due lower personal income taxes, partially offset by increases in corporate taxes driven by upward revision to corporate profits. Personal income tax revenue is forecast at $15.1 billion in 2025-26, a decrease of $457 million from budget due mainly to lower-than-expected 2024 tax assessments. Corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $7.0 billion in 2025-26, an increase of $236 million from Budget 2025. Other tax revenue is forecast to increase $23 million, largely driven by gains in fuel tax as a result of increased gasoline sales volumes and partially offset by a decline in tobacco tax revenue.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2024-25 Actual | 2025-26 Budget | 2025-26 Forecast | Change from budget |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 16,120 | 15,510 | 15,053 | (457) |
| Corporate income tax | 8,125 | 6,764 | 7,000 | 236 |
| Education property tax | 2,797 | 3,124 | 3,124 | – |
| Other tax revenue | 3,314 | 3,439 | 3,463 | 23 |
| Total tax revenue | 30,356 | 28,837 | 28,640 | (197) |
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2025 means for you.
A summary of Alberta's Budget 2025 economic forecast.
Budget 2025 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2025.