Alberta population estimates

A population estimate is a measure of the current or historical population at a particular point in time.

Download: complete Quarterly Population Report - First Quarter of 2019 (June 19, 2019) (PDF, 515 KB)

See below for highlights from the publication.

Alberta continues to lead the provinces in quarterly growth

  • Alberta led the provinces in population growth for the second straight quarter in a row. A reversal of net outflows of non-permanent residents (NPRs) and increased net inflows of interprovincial migrants helped to boost growth in the first quarter of 2019, while natural increase provided relatively steady support.
  • As of April 1, 2019, Alberta had an estimated population of 4,362,503, an addition of 16,766 since January 1, 2019. This amounts to growth of 0.39%, the highest first quarter growth since 2014.
  • International migration was the largest contributor (0.16%), followed by natural increase (0.14%) and interprovincial migration (0.08%).
  • For the seventh consecutive quarter, Alberta’s year-over-year population growth increased, reaching 1.73%. This was well above the national figure (1.42%) and second highest among the provinces, behind P.E.I (2.18%)

Map: Net Population Movement for Alberta, January 1 to March 31, 2019

Map: Net Population Movement for Alberta
Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

PDF reports: Quarterly population reports

Data tables (Excel format): Population estimates, components of growth, births and deaths and components of migration

Animated population estimates pyramid (age and sex)

See the animated pyramid population estimates (age and sex) for 1921 to 2018 (updated February 14, 2019).

Shifts in the age distribution result from changes in fertility, mortality and migration for specific age groups.

The relative size of the major cohorts in Alberta’s population is largely due to the differences in the size of the cohort at birth. For instance:

  • an increase in fertility rates after World War II caused the large Baby Boom cohort
    (born 1946–1965)
  • the decline in fertility rates right after the Baby Boom years led to the Baby Bust cohort
    (born 1965–1974)
  • the Boomer cohort’s children also stand out in the pyramid as the Echo generation
    (born 1975–1995)

Alberta population projections

Population projections give a picture of what the future population may be like. Population growth projections for Alberta and its sub-regions use 3 scenarios:

  • medium-growth (or reference)
  • high-growth
  • low-growth

Download: complete report - 2019-2046 Alberta population projections (July 3, 2019)
(PDF, 1.8 MB)

See below for highlights from the publication.

Highlights: 2019-2046 medium (reference) scenario

In 2046, Alberta’s population is expected to:

  • reach almost 6.6 million people, an increase of roughly 2.3 million people from 2018
  • become older, with an average age of 41.2 years, up from 38.0 years in 2018
  • become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 47% of the expected growth over the projection period
  • become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor; by 2046, 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this region

Chart: Alberta Population Projections, 1972-2046

Alberta Population Projections, 1972-2046
Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

PDF reports: Alberta population projections

The following reports are for 2019 – 2046 and were released on July 3, 2019:

Data tables: Alberta population projections

The following files are for 2019 – 2046 and were released on July 3, 2019:

Animated population projection pyramids (age and sex)

Animated population pyramids are available below for Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions.

Age and sex are presented as percentages of the total population for the periods 1996 – 2018 (estimated) and 2019 – 2046 (projected) under 3 different population growth assumptions:

  • medium growth (reference scenario as most-likely case based on historical trends)
  • high growth
  • low growth

The population projection pyramids below are for 1996 – 2046 and were released on July 3, 2019.

Chart 2: Alberta Population by Age and Sex (Thousands), 2018 and 2046

View the pyramid animation for the medium growth scenario population projections (age and sex) to 2046. The image below shows the estimate for 2018 and 2046.

Alberta Population by Age and Sex (Thousands), 2018 and 2046

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Animated population projection pyramids for Alberta

Animated population projection pyramids for 19 Census Divisions

Animated population projection pyramids for 8 Economic Regions

Population change components

Population change is a result of the relationship between births, deaths and migration.

Definitions

Natural increase
The difference between the number of births and deaths.
Migration (net)
The difference between movements into a region and those out of a region.
International migration (net)
This includes immigrants, emigrants, non-permanent residents (net), temporarily abroad (net) and returning migrants (see definitions below).
  • Immigrants: permanent residents moving to Canada from other countries and landing in Alberta.
  • Emigrants: people permanently leaving Canada
  • Non-permanent residents (net): in and out movements of foreign students, workers and refugee claimants, and the families of each of these categories
  • Temporarily abroad (net): movements of people who do not have a residence in Canada, but intend to return
  • Returning migrants: former emigrants who have returned to Canada to live
Interprovincial migration (net)
The movement between the provinces and territories of Canada, which equals 0 at the national level.
Intraprovincial migration (net)
The movement within the province of Alberta, which equals 0 at the provincial level.

Data tables (Excel format): population change components

Demographic spotlight reports

Demographic profiles and information about the population, such as:

  • migrants
  • age cohorts
  • fertility

PDF reports: demographic spotlights

Demographic glossary of terms

We have a document listing relevant demographic terms.

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Contact

Jennifer Hansen, Manager, Demography and Social Statistics
Office of Statistics and Information
Phone: 780-427-8811
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Email: jennifer.hansen@gov.ab.ca

General OSI enquiries

Hours: 8:15 am to 4:30 pm (open Monday to Friday, closed statutory holidays)
Phone: 780-427-2071
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Fax: 780-426-3951
Email: osi.support@gov.ab.ca

Media enquiries

Contact the Treasury Board and Finance Spokesperson.