Population statistics

Alberta population estimates

A population estimate is a measure of the current or historical population at a particular point in time.

PDF reports: Quarterly population reports archive

• 2009 Second Quarter – Current
• 2002 First Quarter – 2009 First Quarter

Data tables (Excel format): Population estimates, components of growth, births and deaths and components of migration

Updated September 30, 2019, except where noted:

• Population estimates and components of growth (components of growth updated March 19, 2020)
• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions

Animated population estimates pyramid (age and sex)

See the animated pyramid population estimates (age and sex) for 1921 to 2019 (updated September 30, 2019).

Shifts in the age distribution result from changes in fertility, mortality and migration for specific age groups.

The relative size of the major cohorts in Alberta’s population is largely due to the differences in the size of the cohort at birth. For instance:

• an increase in fertility rates after World War II caused the large Baby Boom cohort
  (born 1946–1965)
• the decline in fertility rates right after the Baby Boom years led to the Baby Bust cohort
  (born 1965–1974)
• the Boomer cohort’s children also stand out in the pyramid as the Echo generation
  (born 1975–1995)

Alberta population projections

Population projections give a picture of what the future population may be like. Population growth projections for Alberta and its sub-regions use 3 scenarios:

• medium-growth (or reference)
• high-growth
• low-growth

 

 

Highlights: 2019-2046 medium (reference) scenario

In 2046, Alberta’s population is expected to:

• reach almost 6.6 million people, an increase of roughly 2.3 million people from 2018
• become older, with an average age of 41.2 years, up from 38.0 years in 2018
• become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 47% of the expected growth over the projection period
• become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor; by 2046, 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this region

Chart: Alberta Population Projections, 1972-2046

PDF reports and infographics: Alberta population projections

The following reports are for 2019 – 2046 and were released on July 3, 2019:

• Highlights (PDF, 177 KB)
• Population projections, 2019-2046 (PDF, 1.8 MB)
• Methodology and Assumptions (PDF, 816 KB)
• Infographic (PDF, 222 KB) (added August 28, 2019)
• Archive of previous reports

Data tables: Alberta population projections

The following files are for 2019 – 2046 and were released on July 3, 2019:

• Population projections data tables – Alberta, Census Divisions and Economic Regions
  (Excel and CSV format)

Animated population projection pyramids (age and sex)

Animated population pyramids are available below for Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions.

Age and sex are presented as percentages of the total population for the periods 1996 – 2018 (estimated) and 2019 – 2046 (projected) under 3 different population growth assumptions:

• medium growth (reference scenario as most-likely case based on historical trends)
• high growth
• low growth

The population projection pyramids below are for 1996 – 2046 and were released on July 3, 2019.

Chart 2: Alberta Population by Age and Sex (Thousands), 2018 and 2046

View the pyramid animation for the medium growth scenario population projections (age and sex) to 2046. The image below shows the estimate for 2018 and 2046.

Animated population projection pyramids for Alberta

• Alberta – medium growth (reference scenario)
• Alberta – all growth assumptions (medium, high and low growth)

Animated population projection pyramids for 19 Census Divisions

• See individual maps of the 19 Census Divisions (boundaries as of 2011 Census of Canada)
• Census Divisions – medium growth (reference scenario)
• Census Divisions – high growth
• Census Divisions – low growth

Animated population projection pyramids for 8 Economic Regions

• See individual maps of the 8 Economic Regions (boundaries as of 2011)
• Economic Regions – medium growth (reference scenario)
• Economic Regions – high growth
• Economic Regions – low growth

Population change components

Population change is a result of the relationship between births, deaths and migration.

Definitions

Natural increase

The difference between the number of births and deaths.

Migration (net)

The difference between movements into a region and those out of a region.

International migration (net)

This includes immigrants, emigrants, non-permanent residents (net), temporarily abroad (net) and returning migrants (see definitions below).

• Immigrants: permanent residents moving to Canada from other countries and landing in Alberta.
• Emigrants: people permanently leaving Canada
• Non-permanent residents (net): in and out movements of foreign students, workers and refugee claimants, and the families of each of these categories
• Temporarily abroad (net): movements of people who do not have a residence in Canada, but intend to return
• Returning migrants: former emigrants who have returned to Canada to live

Interprovincial migration (net)

The movement between the provinces and territories of Canada, which equals 0 at the national level.

Intraprovincial migration (net)

The movement within the province of Alberta, which equals 0 at the provincial level.

Data tables (Excel format): population change components

Updated September 30, 2019 except where noted:

• Population estimates and components of growth (components of growth updated March 19, 2020)
• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions
• Life expectancy in Alberta, at birth and age 65
• Fertility rates – Alberta and 19 Census Divisions
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions

Demographic spotlight reports

Demographic profiles and information about the population, such as:

• migrants
• age cohorts
• fertility

PDF reports: demographic spotlights

• A Profile of Inter-Jurisdictional Employees in Alberta - 2016 update (March 16, 2020)
• Interprovincial Employees in Alberta: industrial profile by major region of origin (March 28, 2017)
• A profile of interprovincial employees in Alberta – 2012 update (September 21, 2016)
• Demographic Trends in Alberta's Economic Regions (December 9, 2011)
• The visible minority population: recent trends in Alberta and Canada (August 31, 2011)
• Fertility in Alberta (June 10, 2011)
• Migration trends in census divisions: Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton (March 11, 2011)
• Mortality in Alberta (December 17, 2010)
• Census families in Alberta and Canada (July 28, 2010)
• International migration in Alberta (December 21, 2009)
• Interprovincial migration patterns in Alberta (September 26, 2009)
• Non-permanent residents in Alberta (May 21, 2009)

Demographic glossary of terms

We have a document listing relevant demographic terms.

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Contact

Jennifer Hansen, Manager, Demography and Social Statistics
Office of Statistics and Information
Phone: 780-427-8811
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Email: jennifer.hansen@gov.ab.ca

General OSI enquiries

Hours: 8:15 am to 4:30 pm (open Monday to Friday, closed statutory holidays)
Phone: 780-427-2071
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Fax: 780-426-3951
Email: osi.support@gov.ab.ca

Media enquiries

Contact the Treasury Board and Finance Spokesperson.