Population statistics

Alberta population estimates

A population estimate is a measure of the current or historical population at a particular point in time.

COVID-19 slows natural increase in the fourth quarter

• Alberta added 8,176 residents in the fourth quarter of 2020. As of January 1, 2021, Alberta’s population was 4,436,258.
• In the fourth quarter, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continued to dampen Alberta’s population growth.
  • Due to COVID-19, deaths in Alberta reached the highest quarterly level in the current data series, which dates back to 1971. This led to a drop in natural increase.
  • Restrictions on international travel and difficulty getting permits continued to slow international migration between October 1, 2020 and December 31, 2020.
  • A net gain of non-permanent residents (NPRs) helped to boost net international migration to its highest level since COVID-19 travel restrictions started.
• Alberta’s population grew by 0.18% over the fourth quarter. Because of the increase in deaths over the quarter, natural increase contributed less than usual, adding growth of 0.08%. Net international migration added 0.13% to the population, while net interprovincial outflows weighed on growth (-0.03%).
• Alberta’s year-over-year population growth was the highest among the provinces, at 0.78%. Although this was above the national average (0.39%), it was down significantly from this time last year (1.65%).
• For more details on how COVID-19 was taken into account in population estimates, see Technical Supplement: Production of Demographic Estimates for the Second Quarter of 2020 in the Context of COVID-19.

Alberta Components of Population Change, 4th Quarter of 2020

Download full graphic (JPG, 163 KB)

 

 

Population of provinces/territories as of January 1, 2021 and growth rates since January 1, 2020

Natural increase

• Natural increase (births minus deaths) resulted in an increase of 3,578 people.
  • This was the result of 12,186 births and 8,428 deaths.
  • The fourth quarter saw an additional 1,507 deaths compared to the same period in 2019. This is largely attributable to the increase in COVID-19 deaths seen over this period.
• Alberta continued to have the highest natural growth rate of the provinces at 0.08%, due to our relatively young population.

International migration

• Net international migration was positive in the fourth quarter, welcoming 5,711 people.
• Alberta received 5,280 immigrants, a little more than half the level seen in the same quarter one year earlier.
  • Between October and December, immigration to Canada was lower than the same time in 2019. This was the key reason immigration to Alberta was lower than in the past.
• Alberta’s share of national immigration was 12.8% in the fourth quarter, which was very similar to the same period in 2019.
• Following three quarters of net outflows, NPRs turned positive in the fourth quarter, adding 931 new residents. This net inflow of NPRs helped boost international migration.

Interprovincial migration

• Net interprovincial outflows accelerated in the fourth quarter (-1,293). On a net basis, Alberta gained the most interprovincial migrants from Saskatchewan (527) and Manitoba (504). Alberta lost the most interprovincial migrants to British Columbia (-2,197).

Net Population Movement for Alberta (October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020)

 

Interprovincial Migration Statistics, October 1, 2020 to December 31, 2020

PDF reports: Annual and Quarterly population reports archive

• 2019-20 Annual Population Report (September 29, 2020)

These past publications detail Alberta population estimates between 2002 and 2019.

• 2009 Second Quarter – 2019 Second Quarter
• 2002 First Quarter – 2009 First Quarter

Data tables (Excel format)

Population estimates and components of growth

• Population estimates and components of growth (estimates and components of growth files updated March 18, 2021)
• Municipal (Census Subdivision) Population Estimates (2016 - 2020) (file updated March 23, 2021)

Components of migration, mobility and births and deaths

• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated October 7, 2020)
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated September 29, 2020)

Animated population estimates pyramid (age and sex)

See the animated pyramid population estimates (age and sex) for 1921 to 2020 (updated October 7, 2020).

Shifts in the age distribution result from changes in fertility, mortality and migration for specific age groups.

The relative size of the major cohorts in Alberta’s population is largely due to the differences in the size of the cohort at birth. For instance:

• an increase in fertility rates after World War II caused the large Baby Boom cohort
  (born 1946–1965)
• the decline in fertility rates right after the Baby Boom years led to the Baby Bust cohort
  (born 1965–1974)
• the Boomer cohort’s children also stand out in the pyramid as the Echo generation
  (born 1975–1995)

Alberta population projections

Population projections give a picture of what the future population may be like. Population growth projections for Alberta and its sub-regions use 3 scenarios:

• medium-growth (or reference)
• high-growth
• low-growth

Alberta population projections infographic - 2020 to 2046. Download this infographic (PDF, 222 KB).

Highlights: 2020-2046 medium (reference) scenario

In 2046, Alberta’s population is expected to:

• reach over 6.3 million people, an increase of roughly 2.0 million people from 2019
• become older, with an average age of 41.5 years, up from 38.3 years in 2019
• become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 54% of the expected growth over the projection period
• become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor; 80% of Albertans are expected to live in this region by 2046

Chart: Alberta Population Projections, 1972-2046

PDF reports and infographics: Alberta population projections

The following reports are for 2020 – 2046 and were released on August 28, 2020:

• Highlights (PDF, 177 KB)
• Population projections, 2020-2046 (PDF, 1.8 MB)
• Methodology and Assumptions (PDF, 816 KB)
• Infographic (PDF, 222 KB)
• Archive of previous reports

Data tables: Alberta population projections

The following files are for 2020 – 2046 and were released on August 28, 2020:

• Population projections data tables – Alberta, Census Divisions and Economic Regions (Excel and CSV format)

Animated population projection pyramids (age and sex)

Animated population pyramids are available below for Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions.

Age and sex are presented as percentages of the total population for the periods 1996 – 2019 (estimated) and 2020 – 2046 (projected) under 3 different population growth assumptions:

• medium growth (reference scenario as most-likely case based on historical trends)
• high growth
• low growth

The population projection pyramids below are for 1996 – 2046 and were released on August 28, 2020.

Chart: Alberta Population by Age and Sex (Thousands), 2020 and 2046

View the pyramid animation for the medium growth scenario population projections (age and sex) to 2046. The image below shows the population for 2020 and 2046.

Animated population projection pyramids for Alberta

• Alberta – medium growth (reference scenario)
• Alberta – all growth assumptions (medium, high and low growth)

Animated population projection pyramids for Census Divisions and Economic Regions

• These are available upon request. Contact Jennifer Hansen ([email protected]) for assistance.

Population change components

Population change is a result of the relationship between births, deaths and migration.

Definitions

Natural increase

The difference between the number of births and deaths.

Migration (net)

The difference between movements into a region and those out of a region.

International migration (net)

This includes immigrants, emigrants, non-permanent residents (net), temporarily abroad (net) and returning migrants (see definitions below).

• Immigrants: permanent residents moving to Canada from other countries and landing in Alberta.
• Emigrants: people permanently leaving Canada
• Non-permanent residents (net): in and out movements of foreign students, workers and refugee claimants, and the families of each of these categories
• Temporarily abroad (net): movements of people who do not have a residence in Canada, but intend to return
• Returning migrants: former emigrants who have returned to Canada to live

Interprovincial migration (net)

The movement between the provinces and territories of Canada, which equals 0 at the national level.

Intraprovincial migration (net)

The movement within the province of Alberta, which equals 0 at the provincial level.

Data tables (Excel format): population change components

• Population estimates and components of growth (estimates and components of growth files updated March 18 and March 23, 2021)
• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated October 7, 2020)
• Life expectancy in Alberta, at birth and age 65 (updated September 30, 2020)
• Fertility rates – Alberta and 19 Census Divisions (updated September 30, 2020)
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions (Alberta file updated September 29, 2020)

Demographic spotlight reports

Demographic profiles and information about the population, such as:

• migrants
• age cohorts
• fertility

PDF reports: demographic spotlights

• A Profile of Inter-Jurisdictional Employees in Alberta - 2016 update (March 16, 2020)
• Interprovincial Employees in Alberta: industrial profile by major region of origin (March 28, 2017)
• A profile of interprovincial employees in Alberta – 2012 update (September 21, 2016)
• Demographic Trends in Alberta's Economic Regions (December 9, 2011)
• The visible minority population: recent trends in Alberta and Canada (August 31, 2011)
• Fertility in Alberta (June 10, 2011)
• Migration trends in census divisions: Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton (March 11, 2011)
• Mortality in Alberta (December 17, 2010)
• Census families in Alberta and Canada (July 28, 2010)
• International migration in Alberta (December 21, 2009)
• Interprovincial migration patterns in Alberta (September 26, 2009)
• Non-permanent residents in Alberta (May 21, 2009)

Demographic glossary of terms

We have a document listing relevant demographic terms.

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Contact

Jennifer Hansen, Manager, Demography and Social Statistics
Office of Statistics and Information
Phone: 780-427-8811
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Email: [email protected]

General OSI enquiries

Hours: 8:15 am to 4:30 pm (open Monday to Friday, closed statutory holidays)
Phone: 780-427-2071
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Fax: 780-426-3951
Email: [email protected]

Media enquiries

Contact the Treasury Board and Finance Spokesperson.