Population statistics

Updated population projections and estimates

Population projections for 2023 to 2051 – released July 5, 2023

• See below for the population projections summary, updated tables and data files.

Second quarter 2023 population estimates – released September 27, 2023

• See below for the population estimates summary, updated tables and data files (April 1 to June 30, 2023)

Population estimates for municipalities (census subdivisions) – released January 11, 2023

• See below for the data table.

Alberta population estimates

A population estimate is a measure of the current or historical population at a particular point in time.

• As of July 1, 2023, Alberta’s population was 4,695,290.
• The 2023 second quarter population estimates are the first to incorporate information from the 2021 Census of Population.
  • Revisions affect estimates for the years 2017 to 2022.
  • The latest estimates also incorporate revisions to the estimation methodology for non-permanent residents (NPRs).
• Alberta’s population continues to see dramatic growth. In the twelve months preceding July 1, the province’s population expanded by about 184,000 people, or 4.1%. This represents a significant increase from the previous year (1.8% in 2021-2022) and the highest annual growth rate since 1981.
  • This growth rate is slightly higher than that published by Statistics Canada (4.0%) due to differences in calculation.
• Alberta’s population expanded by 50,061 residents over the second quarter of 2023, or 1.1%. This represents the highest second quarter growth rate on record in the current data series, which began in 1971.

Alberta components of population change, 2nd quarter of 2023

Population of provinces and territories as of July 1, 2023, and growth rates since July 1, 2022

• Of all provinces, Alberta’s quarterly growth rate was second only to PEI at 1.2%.
• In comparison, Canada’s growth rate was 0.90%. Among the 4 largest provinces, Ontario had the next fastest quarterly growth at 0.98%, with B.C. and Quebec coming in at 0.96% and 0.69%, respectively.
• International net migration was the biggest driver of Alberta’s growth in the second quarter, contributing 0.68%, followed by net interprovincial migration at 0.30% and natural increase with 0.10%.
• Alberta registered the highest annual net interprovincial gains of any province or territory recorded in the current data series.

International migration

• International migration added 31,371 net new residents to Alberta in the second quarter of 2023. This figure includes both permanent and temporary immigration (NPRs) from sources outside the country.
  • Alberta welcomed 14,565 immigrants in the second quarter, representing 12.4% of national arrivals. The share of national arrivals was similar to the same period last year (12.0%).
    • In comparison, over 117,000 immigrants made their home in Canada in the second quarter. So far, Canada has landed 263,327 in 2023. The national target for the 2023 calendar year is 465,000 arrivals.
• Record second quarter net inflows of NPRs (17,736) bolstered net international arrivals to the province. Of these newcomers, 75% held a work permit only, 9% had both a work and study permit while 7% held only a study permit. Asylum claimants constituted only 4% of net NPRs.
• As of July 1, 2023, just over 150,000 NPRs were Alberta residents. This stock of temporary immigrants was largely comprised of work permit holders (60%) and study permit holders (24%).
  • With the continuing Russian invasion of Ukraine, most people admitted under the Canada-Ukraine Authorization for Emergency Travel are permit holders, with the rest consisting mainly of family members living with permit holders.

Number of non-permanent residents by type

Interprovincial migration

• Alberta posted the largest net interprovincial gains of all provinces/territories in the second quarter by a large margin (13,926).
  • Besides Alberta, only the Atlantic provinces of Nova Scotia (2,773), New Brunswick (2,532), and P.E.I. (480) registered a notable net gain of interprovincial migrants.
  • This was the fourth quarter in a row that Alberta registered the highest net interprovincial gains.
  • On a net basis, Alberta gained the most interprovincial migrants from Ontario (6,765), B.C. (3,518), Saskatchewan (1,230) and Manitoba (1,685).

Natural increase

• Natural increase added 4,764 people in the second quarter, the balance of 12,475 births and 7,711 deaths.
  • Alberta and Manitoba had the highest natural growth rate at 0.10%. The next highest Saskatchewan (0.07%) and Ontario (0.04%).

Net population movement for Alberta (April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2023)

 

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Interprovincial migration statistics (April 1, 2023, to June 30, 2023)

Data tables (Excel format)

Population estimates and components of growth

• Population estimates and components of growth (estimates and components of growth files updated quarterly)
• Municipal (Census Subdivision) Population Estimates (2016 to 2022) (file updated January 11, 2023)

Components of migration, mobility and births and deaths

• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions

PDF reports: Annual and quarterly population reports archive

• 2021-22 Annual Population Report (January 19, 2022)

These past publications detail Alberta population estimates between 2002 and 2019.

• 2009 Second Quarter to 2019 Second Quarter
• 2002 First Quarter to 2009 First Quarter

Animated population estimates pyramid (age and sex)

See the animated pyramid population estimates (age and sex) for 1921 to 2020 (updated October 7, 2020).

Shifts in the age distribution result from changes in fertility, mortality and migration for specific age groups.

The relative size of the major cohorts in Alberta’s population is largely due to the differences in the size of the cohort at birth. For instance:

• an increase in fertility rates after World War II caused the large Baby Boom cohort
  (born 1946–1965)
• the decline in fertility rates right after the Baby Boom years led to the Baby Bust cohort
  (born 1965–1974)
• the Boomer cohort’s children also stand out in the pyramid as the Echo generation
  (born 1975–1995)

Alberta population projections

Population projections give a picture of what the future population may be like. Population growth projections for Alberta and its sub-regions use 3 scenarios:

• medium-growth (or reference)
• high-growth
• low-growth

Highlights: 2023-51 medium (reference) scenario

In 2051, Alberta’s population is expected to:

• reach over 7.1 million people, an increase of almost 2.6 million people from 2022
• become older, with an average age of 41.6 years, up from 39.0 years in 2022
• become increasingly diverse, as arrivals from other countries account for about 55% of the expected growth over the projection period
• become more concentrated in urban centres, especially along the Edmonton-Calgary Corridor; 81% of Albertans are expected to live in this region by 2051

Chart: Alberta Population Projections, 1972-2051

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

PDF report and infographic: Alberta population projections

The following are for 2023 to 2051 and were released on July 5, 2023:

• Full Report (PDF, 1.5 MB)
• Highlights (PDF, 429 KB)
• Methodology and Assumptions (PDF, 613 KB)
• ​Infographic (PDF, 288 KB)
• Archive of previous reports
• ​Archive of previous infographics

Data tables: Alberta population projections

The following files are for 2023 to 2051 and were released on July 5, 2023.

Population projections data tables – Alberta and Census Divisions

• Population projections data tables – Alberta and Census Divisions (Excel and CSV format)

Population projections data tables – Economic Divisions

• These are available upon request. Contact Jennifer Hansen ([email protected]) for assistance.

Animated population projection pyramids (age and sex)

Animated population pyramids are available below for Alberta.

Age and sex are presented as percentages of the total population for the periods 1996 – 2022 (estimated) and 2023 – 2051 (projected) under 3 different population growth assumptions:

• medium growth (reference scenario as most-likely case based on historical trends)
• high growth
• low growth

The population projection pyramids below are for 2001 to 2051 and were released on July 5, 2023.

Chart: Alberta population by age and sex (thousands), 2022 and 2051

View the pyramid animation for the medium growth scenario population projections (age and sex) to 2046. The image below shows the population for 2022 and 2051.

Source: Statistics Canada and Alberta Treasury Board and Finance

Animated population projection pyramids for Alberta

• Alberta – medium growth (reference scenario)
• Alberta – all growth assumptions (medium, high and low growth)

Animated population projection pyramids for Census Divisions and Economic Regions

• These are available upon request. Contact Jennifer Hansen ([email protected]) for assistance.

Population change components

Population change is a result of the relationship between births, deaths and migration.

Definitions

Natural increase

The difference between the number of births and deaths.

Migration (net)

The difference between movements into a region and those out of a region.

International migration (net)

This includes immigrants, emigrants, non-permanent residents (net), temporarily abroad (net) and returning migrants (see definitions below).

• Immigrants: permanent residents moving to Canada from other countries and landing in Alberta.
• Emigrants: people permanently leaving Canada
• Non-permanent residents (net): in and out movements of foreign students, workers and refugee claimants, and the families of each of these categories
• Temporarily abroad (net): movements of people who do not have a residence in Canada, but intend to return
• Returning migrants: former emigrants who have returned to Canada to live

Interprovincial migration (net)

The movement between the provinces and territories of Canada, which equals 0 at the national level.

Intraprovincial migration (net)

The movement within the province of Alberta, which equals 0 at the provincial level.

Data tables (Excel format): population change components

• Population estimates and components of growth (updated quarterly)
• Components of Migration / Mobility – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions
• Life expectancy in Alberta, at birth and age 65
• Fertility rates – Alberta and 19 Census Divisions
• Vital statistics (births and deaths) – Alberta, 19 Census Divisions and 8 Economic Regions

Demographic spotlight reports

Demographic profiles and information about the population, such as:

• migrants
• age cohorts
• fertility

PDF reports: demographic spotlights

• Interprovincial Employees in Alberta: industrial profile by major region of origin (March 28, 2017)
• A profile of interprovincial employees in Alberta – 2012 update (September 21, 2016)
• Demographic Trends in Alberta's Economic Regions (December 9, 2011)
• The visible minority population: recent trends in Alberta and Canada (August 31, 2011)
• Fertility in Alberta (June 10, 2011)
• Migration trends in census divisions: Fort McMurray, Calgary and Edmonton (March 11, 2011)
• Mortality in Alberta (December 17, 2010)
• Census families in Alberta and Canada (July 28, 2010)
• International migration in Alberta (December 21, 2009)
• Interprovincial migration patterns in Alberta (September 26, 2009)
• Non-permanent residents in Alberta (May 21, 2009)

Demographic glossary of terms

We have a document listing relevant demographic terms.

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Contact

Jennifer Hansen, Manager, Demography and Social Statistics
Office of Statistics and Information
Phone: 780-427-8811
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Email: [email protected]

General OSI enquiries

Hours: 8:15 am to 4:30 pm (open Monday to Friday, closed statutory holidays)
Phone: 780-427-2071
Toll free: 310-0000 before the phone number (in Alberta)
Fax: 780-426-3951
Email: [email protected]

Media enquiries

Contact the Treasury Board and Finance Spokesperson.