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Mid-year economic statement

The outlook for Alberta’s economy remains solid. While the Delta-driven fourth wave dampened activity in the fall, the recovery remains firmly in place as the impacts of COVID-19 are fading and the economy is benefitting from strong energy prices and upturn in business output and investment.

Read the Mid-year Economic Update (PDF, 1.6 MB).

Significant economic rebound in 2021

Alberta’s economy has recovered more quickly than originally expected. The Alberta Activity Index increased by 9.4% through September. The province has gained more than 103,000 jobs since the start of the year and recovered nearly all of the jobs lost during the pandemic.

Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is now expected to rebound by 6.1% in 2021, a notable increase from the 4.8% growth predicted in Budget 2021.

In 2022, Alberta’s real GDP is expected to rise by an additional 5.1%, bringing Alberta’s economy back to levels not seen since 2014.

Table 1. Energy price and currency assumptions

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Fiscal year 2020-21 Actual 2021-22 Budget forecast 2021-22 Forecast 2022-23 Forecast 2023-24 Forecast
WTI oil price (US$/barrel) 42.32 46.00 70.50 64.00 63.50
Light heavy differential (US$/barrel) 10.58 14.60 14.40 13.60 15.40
Exchange rate
(US cents/Cdn$)
75.80 77.4 80.1 79.4 79.7

Table 2. Economic assumptions

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Calendar year 2020 Actual 2021 Forecast 2022 Forecast 2023 Forecast 2024 Forecast
Economic growth
(% change in real GDP)
-7.9 6.1 5.1 2.9 2.7
Employment
(% change)
-6.6 5.1 3.7 2.8 2.3
Unemployment rate (%) 11.4 8.8 7.1 6.3 5.7

Budget documents

More budget information

Find out what Budget 2021 means for you.

Revenue projections from taxes, transfers, investment income and resources.

Budget 2021 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.

Summary of government spending according to Budget 2021.