Keeping Alberta Affordable: Eligible seniors and families with children under 18 can apply for $600 affordability payments. Learn more and apply now
Overview
Alberta's fiscal situation has improved substantially since the forecast in Budget 2022 was developed, largely due to the uplift in energy prices that began in the fall of 2021 and then accelerated in spring of 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and due to fears of supply shortages. Because oil prices have softened but remain robust, the forecast surplus has been updated to $12.3 billion, slightly down from $13.2 billion at the first quarter of 2022-23.
Total revenue of $76.9 billion is now forecast, $14.3 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2022.
Resources
Estimate
Energy prices have receded from the elevated highs in spring 2022, but remain robust. The 2022-23 mid-year report updates the average price of West Texas Intermediate oil to US$91.50 per barrel, with revenue from non-renewable resources up $14.3 billion from budget.
Table 1. Overall Revenue (millions of dollars)
Revenue sources | 2021-22 Actual |
2022-23 Budget |
2022-23 Forecast |
Change from Budget |
2023-24 Target |
2024-25 Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal income tax | 13,335 | 13,382 | 13,299 | (83) | 13,751 | 14,683 |
Corporate income tax | 4,718 | 4,040 | 6,252 | 2,212 | 6,224 | 6,623 |
Other tax revenue | 5,453 | 5,612 | 4,620 | (992) | 5,465 | 5,817 |
Resource revenue – Bitumen | 11,605 | 10,349 | 19,353 | 9,004 | 13,087 | 10,874 |
Resource revenue – Other | 4,565 | 3,491 | 8,771 | 5,280 | 6,102 | 5,094 |
Transfers from Government of Canada | 11,595 | 12,054 | 12,487 | 433 | 11,524 | 12,291 |
Investment income | 3,579 | 3,173 | 1,195 | (1,978) | 2,332 | 3,358 |
Net income from government business enterprises | 4,810 | 2,435 | 2,475 | 40 | 2,657 | 2,422 |
Premiums, fees and licences | 4,520 | 4,490 | 4,756 | 266 | 4,734 | 4,920 |
Other | 4,142 | 3,581 | 3,693 | 112 | 3,675 | 3,782 |
Total revenue | 68,322 | 62,607 | 76,901 | 14,294 | 69,551 | 69,864 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Resource revenue is forecast to be $28.1 billion in 2022-23, by far the largest amount ever reported. Revenue has increased by $14.3 billion from budget. Oil prices have softened from the record highs seen earlier this year, but tight market conditions are keeping prices at robust levels. Global petroleum demand has weakened due to slowing industrial production, rolling lockdowns in China, as well as lower-than-expected U.S. gasoline consumption throughout the summer this year. The announcement by OPEC+ in October to cut their production target by two million barrels per day starting in November led to a partial rebound in West Texas Intermediate (WTI), although rising fears of a global recession continue to weigh on prices. Ongoing geopolitical developments will also continue to keep oil prices volatile in the near term.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
Revenue sources | 2021-22 Actual |
2022-23 Budget |
2022-23 Forecast |
Change from Budget |
2023-24 Target |
2024-25 Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitumen royalty | 11,605 | 10,349 | 19,353 | 9,004 | 13,087 | 10,874 |
Crude oil royalty | 1,947 | 1,670 | 4,003 | 2,333 | 3,037 | 2,542 |
Natural gas and by-products royalty | 2,227 | 1,458 | 4,214 | 2,756 | 2,644 | 2,160 |
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 228 | 236 | 394 | 158 | 291 | 269 |
Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 163 | 127 | 160 | 33 | 130 | 123 |
Total resource revenue | 16,170 | 13,840 | 28,124 | 14,284 | 19,189 | 15,968 |
Tax revenue
Tax revenue is forecast at $24.2 billion in 2022-23, or $1.1 billion more than expected in Budget 2022. The increase from budget is due to stronger corporate income tax revenue, offset by lower fuel tax revenue from the fuel tax relief program and indexation of the personal income tax system to inflation, both to help Albertans with the affordability challenges caused by high inflation.
Personal income tax
Personal income tax revenue is forecast at $13.3 billion, a decrease of $83 million from Budget 2022 as the province indexes the personal income tax system to inflation.
Corporate income tax
Corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $6.3 billion in 2022-23, an increase of $2.2 billion from Budget 2022. This is the highest amount ever collected reflecting strong corporate profits boosted by elevated commodity prices, exports and activity, and encouraged by the Job Creation Tax Cut.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
Revenue sources | 2021-22 Actual |
2022-23 Budget |
2022-23 Forecast |
Change from Budget |
2023-24 Target |
2024-25 Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal income tax | 13,335 | 13,382 | 13,299 | (83) | 13,751 | 14,683 |
Corporate income tax | 4,718 | 4,040 | 6,252 | 2,212 | 6,224 | 6,623 |
Education property tax | 2,478 | 2,504 | 2,504 | - | 2,541 | 2,566 |
Other taxes | 2,975 | 3,108 | 2,116 | (992) | 2,924 | 3,251 |
Total | 23,506 | 23,034 | 24,171 | 1,137 | 25,440 | 27,123 |
More budget information

Find out what Budget 2022 means for you.

A summary of Alberta's Budget 2022 economic forecast.

Budget 2022 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.

Summary of government spending according to Budget 2022.