Revenue

Overview

Alberta's fiscal situation has improved substantially since the forecast in Budget 2022 was developed, largely due to the uplift in energy prices that began in the fall of 2021 and then accelerated in spring of 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and due to fears of supply shortages. The surplus is forecast to be $13.2 billion, an increase of $12.6 billion from Budget.

Total revenue of $75.9 billion is forecast, $13.3 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2022.

Resources

Budget 2022 Revenue
2022-23 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 1 MB)

Estimate

The 2022-23 first quarter revenue forecast has dramatically changed, with West Texas Intermediate oil prices now expected to be over US$22 per barrel higher than estimated in Budget 2022, and resource revenue up $14.6 billion.

Table 1. Overall Revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2021-22 Actual	2022-23 Estimate	2022-23 Forecast	Change from Budget
Personal income tax	13,335	13,382	13,266	(116)
Corporate income tax	4,718	4,040	6,054	2,014
Other tax revenue	5,453	5,612	4,517	(1,095)
Resource revenue – Bitumen	11,605	10,349	20,086	9,737
Resource revenue – Other	4,565	3,491	8,319	4,828
Transfers from Government of Canada	11,595	12,054	12,599	545
Investment income	3,579	3,173	311	(2,862)
Net income from government business enterprises	4,810	2,435	2,448	13
Premiums, fees and licences	4,520	4,490	4,664	174
Other	4,142	3,581	3,625	44
Total revenue	68,322	62,607	75,891	13,284

Non-renewable resource revenue

Resource revenue is forecast to be $28.4 billion in 2022-23, by far the largest amount ever reported. Revenue has increased by $14.6 billion from budget. Global oil prices began rising in fall of 2021, due to rapid return of demand from the end of COVID-19 lock-downs, and inability of industry to reboot production levels at a sufficient pace. This was compounded by the impact of several years of underinvestment in global production. Prices then skyrocketed in the spring of 2022 when Russia invaded Ukraine.

Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2021-22 Actual	2022-23 Estimate	2022-23 Forecast	Change from Budget
Bitumen royalty	11,605	10,349	20,086	9,737
Crude oil royalty	1,947	1,670	3,736	2,066
Natural gas and by-products royalty	2,227	1,458	4,089	2,631
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases	228	236	358	122
Rentals and fees/coal royalty	163	127	136	9
Total resource revenue	16,170	13,840	28,405	14,565

Tax revenue

Tax revenue is forecast at $24 billion in 2022-23, or $803 million more than expected in Budget 2022. Alberta’s improving economy, and higher energy and export prices, are expected to drive increases of $2 billion in corporate income tax.

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is forecast at $13.3 billion, a decrease of $116 million from Budget 2022 as the province indexes the personal income tax system to inflation.

Corporate income tax

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $6.1 billion in 2022-23, an increase of $2 billion from Budget 2022, as energy and export prices strengthened, supporting growth in corporate profits.

Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

Revenue sources	2021-22 Actual	2022-23 Estimate	2022-23 Forecast	Change from Budget
Personal income tax	13,335	13,382	13,266	(116)
Corporate income tax	4,718	4,040	6,054	2,014
Education property tax	2,478	2,504	2,504	-
Other taxes	2,975	3,108	2,013	(1,095)
Total	23,506	23,034	23,837	803