Revenue

Overview

Alberta's fiscal situation has improved substantially since the forecast in Budget 2022 was developed, largely due to the uplift in energy prices that began in the fall of 2021 and then accelerated in spring of 2022, following Russia's invasion of Ukraine and due to fears of supply shortages. Because oil prices have softened but remain robust, the forecast surplus has been updated to $12.3 billion, slightly down from $13.2 billion at the first quarter of 2022-23.

Total revenue of $76.9 billion is now forecast, $14.3 billion higher than estimated in Budget 2022.

Resources

Budget 2022 Revenue
2022-23 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 2 MB)

Estimate

Energy prices have receded from the elevated highs in spring 2022, but remain robust. The 2022-23 mid-year report updates the average price of West Texas Intermediate oil to US$91.50 per barrel, with revenue from non-renewable resources up $14.3 billion from budget.

Table 1. Overall Revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2021-22 Actual	2022-23 Budget	2022-23 Forecast	Change from Budget	2023-24 Target	2024-25 Target
Personal income tax	13,335	13,382	13,299	(83)	13,751	14,683
Corporate income tax	4,718	4,040	6,252	2,212	6,224	6,623
Other tax revenue	5,453	5,612	4,620	(992)	5,465	5,817
Resource revenue – Bitumen	11,605	10,349	19,353	9,004	13,087	10,874
Resource revenue – Other	4,565	3,491	8,771	5,280	6,102	5,094
Transfers from Government of Canada	11,595	12,054	12,487	433	11,524	12,291
Investment income	3,579	3,173	1,195	(1,978)	2,332	3,358
Net income from government business enterprises	4,810	2,435	2,475	40	2,657	2,422
Premiums, fees and licences	4,520	4,490	4,756	266	4,734	4,920
Other	4,142	3,581	3,693	112	3,675	3,782
Total revenue	68,322	62,607	76,901	14,294	69,551	69,864

Non-renewable resource revenue

Resource revenue is forecast to be $28.1 billion in 2022-23, by far the largest amount ever reported. Revenue has increased by $14.3 billion from budget. Oil prices have softened from the record highs seen earlier this year, but tight market conditions are keeping prices at robust levels. Global petroleum demand has weakened due to slowing industrial production, rolling lockdowns in China, as well as lower-than-expected U.S. gasoline consumption throughout the summer this year. The announcement by OPEC+ in October to cut their production target by two million barrels per day starting in November led to a partial rebound in West Texas Intermediate (WTI), although rising fears of a global recession continue to weigh on prices. Ongoing geopolitical developments will also continue to keep oil prices volatile in the near term.

Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2021-22 Actual	2022-23 Budget	2022-23 Forecast	Change from Budget	2023-24 Target	2024-25 Target
Bitumen royalty	11,605	10,349	19,353	9,004	13,087	10,874
Crude oil royalty	1,947	1,670	4,003	2,333	3,037	2,542
Natural gas and by-products royalty	2,227	1,458	4,214	2,756	2,644	2,160
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases	228	236	394	158	291	269
Rentals and fees/coal royalty	163	127	160	33	130	123
Total resource revenue	16,170	13,840	28,124	14,284	19,189	15,968

Tax revenue

Tax revenue is forecast at $24.2 billion in 2022-23, or $1.1 billion more than expected in Budget 2022. The increase from budget is due to stronger corporate income tax revenue, offset by lower fuel tax revenue from the fuel tax relief program and indexation of the personal income tax system to inflation, both to help Albertans with the affordability challenges caused by high inflation.

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is forecast at $13.3 billion, a decrease of $83 million from Budget 2022 as the province indexes the personal income tax system to inflation.

Corporate income tax

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast at $6.3 billion in 2022-23, an increase of $2.2 billion from Budget 2022. This is the highest amount ever collected reflecting strong corporate profits boosted by elevated commodity prices, exports and activity, and encouraged by the Job Creation Tax Cut.

Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

Revenue sources	2021-22 Actual	2022-23 Budget	2022-23 Forecast	Change from Budget	2023-24 Target	2024-25 Target
Personal income tax	13,335	13,382	13,299	(83)	13,751	14,683
Corporate income tax	4,718	4,040	6,252	2,212	6,224	6,623
Education property tax	2,478	2,504	2,504	-	2,541	2,566
Other taxes	2,975	3,108	2,116	(992)	2,924	3,251
Total	23,506	23,034	24,171	1,137	25,440	27,123