Overview
Alberta’s revenue has seen large swings since the onset of the pandemic. Total revenue in 2021-22 is now expected to be $18 billion more than the forecast in Budget 2021.
As oil prices strengthen, the economy continues to grow and the province attracts more investment, total revenue is expected to increase to $62.6 billion in 2022-23.
Resources
Forecast
Corporate income taxes and non-renewable resource revenues are expected to strengthen and federal transfers are expected to increase in 2022-23, while investment income will become more moderate after an exceptionally strong 2021.
Table 1. Budget 2022 Revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2020-21 Actual | 2021-22 Budget | 2021-22 Forecast | 2022-23 Estimate | 2023-24 Target | 2024-25 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 11,257 | 11,647 | 13,261 | 13,382 | 14,442 | 15,455 |
| Corporate income tax | 3,037 | 1,891 | 3,343 | 4,040 | 4,517 | 4,896 |
| Other tax revenue | 5,285 | 5,527 | 5,456 | 5,612 | 5,778 | 5,913 |
| Resource revenue – Bitumen | 2,006 | 1,482 | 9,515 | 10,349 | 9,213 | 8,160 |
| Resource revenue – Other | 1,085 | 1,374 | 3,722 | 3,491 | 3,115 | 2,756 |
| Transfers from Government of Canada | 10,532 | 10,181 | 11,306 | 12,054 | 11,641 | 11,895 |
| Investment income | 2,643 | 2,205 | 4,660 | 3,173 | 3,492 | 3,699 |
| Net income from government business enterprises | (83) | 1,877 | 2,509 | 2,435 | 2,630 | 2,656 |
| Premiums, fees and licences | 4,021 | 4,133 | 4,304 | 4,490 | 4,606 | 4,736 |
| Other | 3,355 | 3,380 | 3,616 | 3,581 | 3,700 | 3,685 |
| Total revenue | 43,137 | 43,697 | 61,692 | 62,607 | 63,134 | 63,852 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
After collapsing in spring of 2020 with the onset of the pandemic, energy prices began climbing dramatically later in 2021. Global energy demand has surged since vaccines first started enabling looser health restrictions. Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to moderate from their current highs over the next few years as the global supply-demand imbalance resolves and prices decrease.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2020-21 Actual | 2021-22 Estimate | 2021-22 Forecast | 2022-23 Estimate | 2023-24 Target | 2024-25 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitumen royalty | 2,006 | 1,482 | 9,515 | 10,349 | 9,213 | 8,160 |
| Crude oil royalty | 466 | 627 | 1,666 | 1,670 | 1,619 | 1,478 |
| Natural gas and by-products royalty | 465 | 467 | 1,722 | 1,458 | 1,151 | 959 |
| Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 24 | 151 | 185 | 236 | 225 | 206 |
| Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 130 | 128 | 149 | 127 | 120 | 113 |
| Total resource revenue | 3,091 | 2,856 | 13,237 | 13,840 | 12,328 | 10,916 |
Tax revenue
Tax revenue is forecast at $23 billion in 2022-23, 37% of total revenue. This is $974 million, or 4.4% higher than in 2021-22. Alberta’s improving economy and employment rate are expected to drive increases of $697 million in corporate income tax, $121 million in personal income tax, and $120 million in fuel and insurance taxes. Tax revenue is forecast to grow by an average of 6.8% for the following two years, reaching $26.3 billion by 2024-25.
Personal income tax
Personal income tax revenue in 2022-23 is estimated at $13.4 billion, an increase of $121 million from 2021-22. Personal income tax in 2021-22 is now expected to be $1.6 billion higher than the Budget 2021 forecast due to the growing economy, job creation, and population and household income growth.
Corporate income tax
Corporate income tax revenue is estimated at $4 billion in 2022-23, $697 million higher than the forecast for 2021-22. Revenue from the corporate income tax rose dramatically in 2021-22, increasing $1.5 billion from Budget 2021 as energy prices strengthened and economic activity broadened, supporting growth in corporate profits. Alberta has the lowest corporate income tax rate in Canada, which is part of the government’s efforts to foster a competitive business environment and attract investment. As more companies expand their businesses in Alberta, revenue from the corporate income tax will continue to increase.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2020-21 Actual | 2021-22 Budget | 2021-22 Forecast | 2022-23 Estimate | 2023-24 Target | 2024-25 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 11,257 | 11,647 | 13,261 | 13,382 | 14,442 | 15,455 |
| Corporate income tax | 3,037 | 1,891 | 3,343 | 4,040 | 4,517 | 4,896 |
| Education property tax | 2,483 | 2,472 | 2,477 | 2,504 | 2,541 | 2,566 |
| Other taxes | 2,802 | 3,055 | 2,979 | 3,108 | 3,237 | 3,347 |
| Total | 19,579 | 19,065 | 22,060 | 23,034 | 24,737 | 26,264 |
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2022 means for you.
A summary of Alberta's Budget 2022 economic forecast.
Budget 2022 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2022.