COVID-19: State of public health emergency. Mandatory measures remain in effect provincewide.
Overview
Nearly all of Alberta’s revenue streams have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global oil price crash.
The revenue forecast has declined significantly in all 3 fiscal years compared to Budget 2020 projections.
Download: 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 1.5 MB)
Forecast
Provincial revenue is projected to be $41.4 billion in 2020-21, or $8.6 billion lower than estimated in Budget 2020, and 10% lower than in 2019-20.
Table 1. 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement Revenue (millions of dollars)
Revenue sources | 2019-20 Actual | Budget 2020 Forecast | 2020-21 Mid-year Forecast | Change from Budget | 2021-22 Target | 2022-23 Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income and other Taxes | 21,098 | 22,887 | 18,227 | (4,660) | 19,094 | 20,923 |
Non-renewable resource revenue | 5,937 | 5,090 | 1,669 | (3,421) | 2,491 | 5,055 |
Transfers from Government of Canada | 9,072 | 9,110 | 11,337 | 2,227 | 9,903 | 9,731 |
Investment income | 2,828 | 2,630 | 1,919 | (711) | 1,962 | 2,250 |
Net income from government business enterprises | (225) | 2,358 | 1,194 | (1,164) | 1,666 | 1,915 |
Premiums, fees and licences | 3,929 | 4,194 | 4,030 | (164) | 4,162 | 4,291 |
Other | 3,585 | 3,726 | 3,038 | (688) | 3,386 | 3,476 |
Total revenue | 46,224 | 49,996 | 41,414 | (8,582) | 42,664 | 47,641 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to decrease in response to the global oil price crash. Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $1.7 billion in 2020-21, down $3.4 billion from the Budget 2020 forecast and $4.3 billion lower than in 2019-20.
For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
Resource revenue | 2019-20 Actual | Budget 2020 Forecast | 2020-21 Mid-year Forecast | Change from Budget | 2021-22 Target | 2022-23 Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Bitumen royalty | 4,089 | 3,211 | 896 | (2,315) | 1,335 | 3,180 |
Crude oil royalty | 1,175 | 1,135 | 397 | (738) | 530 | 845 |
Natural gas and by-products royalty | 371 | 429 | 192 | (237) | 389 | 733 |
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 120 | 177 | 36 | (141) | 109 | 171 |
Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 182 | 137 | 148 | 11 | 128 | 126 |
Total resource revenue | 5,937 | 5,090 | 1,669 | (3,421) | 2,491 | 5,055 |
Income taxes
Household incomes and corporate profits have deteriorated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, tax revenue is forecast at $18.2 billion in 2020-21, $4.7 billion lower than expected at budget.
About 90% of this expected reduction is due to a severe decline in personal and corporate income tax revenue.
Personal income tax
Personal income tax revenue is estimated at about $10.7 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of $1.8 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.
Business taxes
Corporate income tax is forecast at nearly $2.2 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of about $2.3 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.
Tax revenue
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
Revenue Sources | 2019-20 Actual | Budget 2020 Forecast | 2020-21 Mid-year Forecast | Change from Budget | 2021-22 Target | 2022-23 Target |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Personal Income tax | 11,244 | 12,566 | 10,753 | (1,813) | 11,686 | 12,535 |
Corporate income tax | 4,107 | 4,539 | 2,188 | (2,351) | 1,666 | 2,391 |
Other taxes | 5,747 | 5,782 | 5,286 | (496) | 5,742 | 5,997 |
Total | 21,098 | 22,887 | 18,227 | (4,660) | 19,094 | 20,923 |
Budget documents
Budget 2020 Fiscal Plan (PDF, 6.7 MB)
Budget 2020 Highlights (PDF, 1.7 MB)
More budget information

A plan to get Albertans back to work, make life better and stand up for Alberta.

A summary of Alberta’s Budget 2020 economic forecast and analysis.

Budget 2020 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.

Budget 2020 continues to optimize Alberta’s tax system.