Revenue

Overview

The revenue forecast is based on modest economic performance in 2019 and 2020 before growth accelerates in 2021 and 2022 as pipelines come online, oil sands production continues to expand, new investment increases and oil prices and exports rise.

Revenue is projected to grow 7.8% in the following two years as we continue to bring investment back to Alberta and control our spending.

Download: Complete Revenue Chapter - 2020-23 Fiscal Plan (PDF, 6.7 MB)

Forecast

Provincial revenue is projected to be $50 billion in 2020-21, or $1 billion lower than forecast in 2019-20.

Revenue is forecast to stay relatively stable in 2021-22 and then grow to $58.1 billion in 2022-23, mainly by increasing income taxes and bitumen royalties.

Table 1: Budget 2020 Revenue (millions of dollars)

Revenue sources	2018-19 Actual	2019-20 Forecast	2020-21 Estimate	2021 Target	2022-23 Target
Income and other Taxes	23,578	21,826	22,887	24,380	25,864
Non-renewable resource revenue	5,429	6,671	5,090	6,705	8,536
Transfers from Government of Canada	8,013	9,054	9,110	9,533	9,784
Investment income	2,349	3,525	2,630	2,889	3,070
Net income from government business enterprises	2,582	2,378	2,357	2,419	2,565
Premiums, fees and licences	3,911	3,947	4,194	4,299	4,407
Other	3,745	3,547	3,711	3,811	3,835
Total revenue	49,607	50,948	49,979	54,036	58,061

Source: Treasury Board and Finance

Non-renewable resource revenue

Non-renewable resource revenue is estimated to decrease due almost entirely to decreased bitumen royalties from a wider light-heavy oil price differential, reflecting more expensive rail transportation costs.

Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $5.1 billion in 2020-21, growing to $8.5 billion by 2022-23.

For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.

Table 2: Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Resource revenue	2018-19 Actual	2019-20 Forecast	2020-21 Estimate	2021-22 Target	2022-23 Target
Bitumen royalty	3,214	4,707	3,211	4,492	6,146
Crude oil royalty	1,149	1,228	1,135	1,267	1,302
Natural gas & by-products royalty	536	438	429	597	743
Bonuses & sales of Crown leases	360	133	177	218	223
Rentals and fees/coal royalty	170	164	137	130	122
Total resource revenue	5,429	6,671	5,090	6,705	8,536

Source: Treasury Board and Finance

Income taxes

Tax revenue is forecast to be higher in 2020-21, due to increases in personal income tax, corporate income tax, education property tax and other tax revenue. These are offset by a reduction due to the elimination of the carbon tax.

Tax revenue in 2020-21 is estimated at $22.9 billion, and forecast to reach $25.9 billion by 2022-23.

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is estimated at $12.6 billion in 2020-21, an increase of $747 million, or 6.3% from 2019- 20. Revenue in 2019-20 was $171 million less than the Budget 2019 estimate after revised 2018 assessment data was lower than expected.

The decrease lowers the prior-years’ adjustment to $17 million, which was added to 2019-20 revenue to account for revisions to 2017-19 and 2018-10 revenue already reported in the government’s financial statements. This also reduces the base used to forecast personal income tax revenue for future years, including 2019 and 2020.

Business taxes

Reducing the corporate income tax rate increases competitiveness and attracts investment by reducing the cost of doing business in Alberta, as suggested by the MacKinnon Panel.

Corporate income tax is forecast at $4.5 billion in 2020-21, an increase of $294 million or 7% from 2019-20. Continued growth in corporate income tax is forecast, based on improving oil prices, expanding oil production, achievement of market access as well as growth in manufacturing and exports and rising economic activity.

Tax revenue

Table 3: Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

	2018-19 Actual	2019-20 Forecast	2020-21 Estimate	2021-22 Target	2022-23 Target
Personal Income tax	11,874	11,819	12,566	13,426	14,315
Corporate income tax	4,871	4,245	4,539	4,985	5,360
Education property tax	2,441	2,457	2,559	2,652	2,766
Carbon tax	1,324	185	-	-	-
Other taxes	3,066	3,120	3,223	3,317	3,423
Total	23.576	21,826	22,887	24,380	25,864