Overview
While Alberta’s economic prospects remain optimistic, government revenue continues to be volatile as a significant portion is highly sensitive to global economic conditions including commodity prices, interest and exchange rates, and financial markets.
Total revenue in 2024-25 is forecast at $73.5 billion, a decrease of $2.1 billion from the 2023-24 third quarter forecast of $75.6 billion. The decrease comes mainly from a $2.1 billion drop in resource revenue driven by an anticipated decline in oil prices, and a $1.2 billion decrease in investment income, as uncertainty in the global economic outlook impacts future investment performance expectations.
Resources
Forecast
Total revenue is estimated at $73.5 billion in 2024-25, $2.1 billion lower than the 2023-24 third quarter forecast of $75.6 billion. Revenue is forecast to grow by $2.5 billion in 2025-26 and $2.8 billion in 2026-27, reaching $78.8 billion by the end of the forecast period.
Table 1. Total Revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2022-23 Actual | 2023-24 Budget | 2023-24 Forecast | 2024-25 Estimate | 2025-26 Target | 2026-27 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 13,925 | 14,069 | 15,239 | 15,604 | 16,514 | 17,512 |
| Corporate income tax | 8,167 | 5,911 | 7,204 | 7,028 | 7,052 | 7,320 |
| Other tax revenue | 4,432 | 5,012 | 4,470 | 6,013 | 6,329 | 6,535 |
| Resource revenue – Bitumen | 16,879 | 12,555 | 14,367 | 12,538 | 12,857 | 12,888 |
| Resource revenue – Other | 8,363 | 5,806 | 5,049 | 4,777 | 4,982 | 5,051 |
| Federal transfers | 11,363 | 12,552 | 12,656 | 12,640 | 13,161 | 13,644 |
| Investment income | 1,326 | 3,154 | 4,467 | 3,267 | 3,433 | 3,672 |
| Net income from business enterprises | 2,481 | 2,727 | 2,526 | 2,123 | 2,200 | 2,481 |
| Premiums, fees and licences | 4,657 | 5,040 | 5,300 | 5,384 | 5,551 | 5,752 |
| Other revenue | 4,527 | 3,827 | 4,349 | 4,164 | 3,973 | 3,960 |
| Total revenue | 76,120 | 70,653 | 75,628 | 73,537 | 76,051 | 78,816 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue in 2024-25 is estimated at $17.3 billion, representing 24% of total revenue. This is a $2.1 billion decrease from the $19.4 billion forecast for 2023-24. The decrease is attributable to softening oil prices due to uncertainties around global demand.
Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to increase gradually over the next 2 years as the market rebalances, reaching $17.9 billion in 2026-27. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil is expected to average US$74 per barrel in 2024-25, $2.50 per barrel lower than 2023-24, and remain at US$74 per barrel over the forecast period.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2022-23 Actual | 2023-24 Budget | 2023-24 Forecast | 2024-25 Estimate | 2025-26 Target | 2026-27 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitumen royalty | 16,879 | 12,555 | 14,367 | 12,538 | 12,857 | 12,888 |
| Crude oil royalty | 3,968 | 2,905 | 3,139 | 2,779 | 2,697 | 2,689 |
| Natural gas and by-products royalty | 3,595 | 2,465 | 1,249 | 1,468 | 1,742 | 1,793 |
| Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 465 | 307 | 435 | 321 | 335 | 361 |
| Rentals and fees / coal royalty | 335 | 129 | 226 | 209 | 208 | 208 |
| Total resource revenue | 25,242 | 18,361 | 19,416 | 17,315 | 17,839 | 17,939 |
Tax revenue
Personal income tax
Personal income tax revenue is estimated at $15.6 billion, an increase of $365 million from 2023-24, and $570 million higher than the Budget 2023 target. The increase is due mainly to an upward revision of 2022 tax assessments which elevate the base for forecasting subsequent years. In the outer years, personal income tax revenue continues its ascending trend, adding an additional $910 million in 2025-26 and a further $998 million in 2026-27.
Corporate income tax
Corporate income tax is estimated at $7 billion in 2024-25, $774 million higher than Budget 2023, mainly due to the base effects of the record-high corporate income tax recorded in 2022-23 with industry fundamentals holding up in the latter part of 2023. Corporate income tax is forecast to grow 4.2% over the forecasting period and reach $7.3 billion in 2026-27.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2022-23 Actual | 2023-24 Budget | 2023-24 Forecast | 2024-25 Estimate | 2025-26 Target | 2026-27 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal income tax | 13,925 | 14,069 | 15,239 | 15,604 | 16,514 | 17,512 |
| Corporate income tax | 8,167 | 5,911 | 7,204 | 7,028 | 7,052 | 7,320 |
| Education property tax | 2,537 | 2,504 | 2,504 | 2,733 | 2,856 | 2,979 |
| Other taxes | 1,895 | 2,508 | 1,966 | 3,280 | 3,473 | 3,556 |
| Total tax revenue | 26,524 | 24,992 | 26,913 | 28,645 | 29,895 | 31,367 |
More budget information
Find out what Budget 2024 means for you.
A summary of Alberta's Budget 2024 economic forecast.
Budget 2024 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2024.