Revenue

Overview

Nearly all of government’s revenue streams have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global oil price crash.

Almost 80% of the drop in revenue is attributed to lower income taxes, resource and gaming revenue.

Download: 2020-21 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 949 KB)

Forecast

Provincial revenue is projected to be $38.4 billion in 2020-21, or $11.5 billion lower – a 23% decrease – than estimated in Budget 2020.

Table 1. 2020-21 First Quarter Fiscal Update and Economic Statement Revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2019-20 Actual	Budget 2020	2020-21 Q1 Forecast	Change from Budget to Q1
Income and other Taxes	21,098	22,887	18,100	(4,787)
Non-renewable resource revenue	5,937	5,090	1,224	(3,866)
Transfers from Government of Canada	9,072	9,110	9,956	846
Investment income	2,828	2,630	1,544	(1,086)
Net income from government business enterprises	(225)	2,358	720	(1,638)
Premiums, fees and licences	3,929	4,194	3,869	(325)
Other	3,585	3,727	3,036	(691)
Total revenue	46,224	49,996	38,449	(11,547)

Non-renewable resource revenue

Non-renewable resource revenue is estimated to decrease in response to the global oil price crash.

Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $1.2 billion in 2020-21, down $3.9 billion from what was forecast in Budget 2020.

For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.

Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Resource revenue	2019-20 Actual	Budget 2020	2020-21 Q1 Forecast	Change from Budget to Q1
Bitumen royalty	4,089	3,211	686	(2,525)
Crude oil royalty	1,175	1,135	316	(819)
Natural gas and by-products royalty	371	429	77	(352)
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases	120	177	22	(155)
Rentals and fees/coal royalty	182	137	123	(14)
Total resource revenue	5,937	5,090	1,224	3,866

Income taxes

Tax revenue is forecast to be lower in 2020-21. Household incomes and corporate profits have deteriorated due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Tax revenue in 2020-21 is estimated at $18.1 billion, a $4.8 billion decrease from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is estimated at $10.7 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of $1.9 billion, from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Business taxes

Reducing the corporate income tax rate increases competitiveness and attracts investment by reducing the cost of doing business in Alberta, as suggested by the MacKinnon Panel.

Corporate income tax is forecast at $2.1 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of $2.4 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Tax revenue

Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

	2019-20 Actual	Budget 2020	2020-21 Q1 Forecast	Change from Budget to Q1
Personal Income tax	11,244	12,566	10,712	(1,854)
Corporate income tax	4,107	4,539	2,146	(2,393)
Education property tax	2,475	2,559	2,472	(87)
Carbon tax	189	0	0	0
Other taxes	3,066	3,223	2,770	(453)
Total	21,098	22,887	18,100	(4,787)