Revenue

Overview

Nearly all of Alberta’s revenue streams have been negatively impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic and global oil price crash.

The revenue forecast has declined significantly in all 3 fiscal years compared to Budget 2020 projections.

Download: 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement (PDF, 1.5 MB)

Forecast

Provincial revenue is projected to be $41.4 billion in 2020-21, or $8.6 billion lower than estimated in Budget 2020, and 10% lower than in 2019-20.

Table 1. 2020-21 Mid-year Fiscal Update and Economic Statement Revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Revenue sources	2019-20 Actual	Budget 2020 Forecast	2020-21 Mid-year Forecast	Change from Budget	2021-22 Target	2022-23 Target
Income and other Taxes	21,098	22,887	18,227	(4,660)	19,094	20,923
Non-renewable resource revenue	5,937	5,090	1,669	(3,421)	2,491	5,055
Transfers from Government of Canada	9,072	9,110	11,337	2,227	9,903	9,731
Investment income	2,828	2,630	1,919	(711)	1,962	2,250
Net income from government business enterprises	(225)	2,358	1,194	(1,164)	1,666	1,915
Premiums, fees and licences	3,929	4,194	4,030	(164)	4,162	4,291
Other	3,585	3,726	3,038	(688)	3,386	3,476
Total revenue	46,224	49,996	41,414	(8,582)	42,664	47,641

Non-renewable resource revenue

Non-renewable resource revenue is expected to decrease in response to the global oil price crash. Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $1.7 billion in 2020-21, down $3.4 billion from the Budget 2020 forecast and $4.3 billion lower than in 2019-20.

For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.

Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)

Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Resource revenue	2019-20 Actual	Budget 2020 Forecast	2020-21 Mid-year Forecast	Change from Budget	2021-22 Target	2022-23 Target
Bitumen royalty	4,089	3,211	896	(2,315)	1,335	3,180
Crude oil royalty	1,175	1,135	397	(738)	530	845
Natural gas and by-products royalty	371	429	192	(237)	389	733
Bonuses and sales of Crown leases	120	177	36	(141)	109	171
Rentals and fees/coal royalty	182	137	148	11	128	126
Total resource revenue	5,937	5,090	1,669	(3,421)	2,491	5,055

Income taxes

Household incomes and corporate profits have deteriorated due to the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, tax revenue is forecast at $18.2 billion in 2020-21, $4.7 billion lower than expected at budget.

About 90% of this expected reduction is due to a severe decline in personal and corporate income tax revenue.

Personal income tax

Personal income tax revenue is estimated at about $10.7 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of $1.8 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Business taxes

Corporate income tax is forecast at nearly $2.2 billion in 2020-21, a decrease of about $2.3 billion from Budget 2020 forecasts.

Tax revenue

Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)

Revenue Sources	2019-20 Actual	Budget 2020 Forecast	2020-21 Mid-year Forecast	Change from Budget	2021-22 Target	2022-23 Target
Personal Income tax	11,244	12,566	10,753	(1,813)	11,686	12,535
Corporate income tax	4,107	4,539	2,188	(2,351)	1,666	2,391
Other taxes	5,747	5,782	5,286	(496)	5,742	5,997
Total	21,098	22,887	18,227	(4,660)	19,094	20,923