Overview
Alberta’s economic position as a small, open economy with a large natural resource base makes it sensitive to global economic conditions beyond the province. Alberta’s government introduced a renewed fiscal framework in 2023 to help manage volatile and unpredictable government revenue.
Resources
Forecast
Total revenue in 2026-27 is forecast at $86.3 billion. This is an increase of $11.7 billion over what was forecast in Budget 2026, primarily due to higher than expected oil prices.
Table 1. Total revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | Actual | Budget | Q1 Forecast | Change from Budget | |
| Tax revenue | 28,837 | 29,806 | 30,470 | 31, 420 | 950 |
| Non-renewable resource revenue | 17,067 | 17, 934 | 13,213 | 22,955 | 9,742 |
| Federal transfers | 13,305 | 13,271 | 13,715 | 14,061 | 346 |
| Investment income | 2,883 | 4,952 | 4,358 | 4,446 | 88 |
| Other income | 12,045 | 13,787 | 12,794 | 13, 396 | 602 |
| Total revenue | 74,138 | 79,750 | 74,550 | 86,279 | 11,779 |
Non-renewable resource revenue
Non-renewable resource revenue in 2026-27 is estimated at $23.0 billion – 27% of total revenue. This is a $9.7 billion increase from the $13.2 billion forecast for Budget 2026 due to higher oil prices.
Western Texas Intermediate (WTI) is expected to average US$73.50 per barrel in 2026-27, $13 per barrel higher than the 2026 Budget forecast of $60.50 per barrel.
Table 2. Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | Actual | Budget | Q1 Forecast | Change from Budget | |
| Bitumen royalty | 12,830 | 14,083 | 9,688 | 18,042 | 8,354 |
| Crude oil royalty | 2,510 | 2,375 | 2,120 | 3,094 | 974 |
| Natural gas and by-products royalty | 1,228 | 879 | 942 | 1,304 | 362 |
| Bonuses and sales of Crown leases | 361 | 419 | 331 | 390 | 59 |
| Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 138 | 178 | 131 | 143 | 12 |
| Total resource revenue | 17,067 | 17,934 | 13,213 | 22, 955 | 9,742 |
Tax revenue
Tax revenue is forecast at $31.4 billion in 2026-27 – 36% of total revenue. This is $950 million higher than in Budget 2026.
Revenue from personal income tax is forecast to increase $420 million, while corporate income tax revenue is projected to increase $545 million from Budget 2026. However, other tax revenue is forecast to decrease $16 million, mainly as a result of lower tobacco tax revenue from the continued decline in tobacco consumption.
Table 3. Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
| Revenue sources | 2025-26 | 2026-27 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Budget | Actual | Budget | Q1 Forecast | Change from Budget | |
| Personal income tax | 15,510 | 15,308 | 15,933 | 16,354 | 421 |
| Corporate income tax | 6,764 | 7,696 | 7,300 | 7,845 | 545 |
| Education property tax | 3,124 | 3,225 | 3,592 | 3,592 | - |
| Other tax revenue | 3,439 | 3,576 | 3,645 | 3,629 | (16) |
| Total tax revenue | 28,837 | 29,806 | 30,470 | 31, 420 | 950 |
More budget information
Budget highlights
Find out what Budget 2026 means for you.
Economic outlook
A summary of Alberta's Budget 2026 economic forecast.
Capital Plan
Budget 2026 invests in the infrastructure families and communities need.
Expense
Summary of government spending according to Budget 2026.