Job market forecasts

Overview

The Outlooks use factors such as economic and occupational outlook, demographics and education to forecast future demand for occupations and supply of workers in Alberta.

These Outlooks are a useful tool for:

• Alberta government and other levels of government
• industry associations
• employers
• post-secondary institutions
• Albertans looking to make training and career decisions

Alberta’s Occupational Outlook

Government releases the Alberta Occupational Outlook every 2 years to predict 10 years of job shortages and surpluses.

We expect a mostly balanced labour market by 2030 with some potential shortages or surpluses depending on the occupation. The Occupational Outlook does not consider or reflect policy changes.

The following are a few of the occupations with a forecasted labour shortage of more than 3,000 workers by 2030:

• construction trades helpers and labourers
• program leaders and instructors in recreation, sport and fitness
• landscaping and grounds maintenance labourers
• registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses
• home building and renovation managers
• information systems analysts and consultants
• contractors and supervisors, other construction trades, installers, repairers and servicers
• computer programmers and interactive media developers
• graphic designers and illustrators
• elementary and secondary school teacher assistants

Heath occupations

We expect a shortage of registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses over the next 2 years.

Other health occupations should not experience significant shortages or surpluses, but challenges filling rural and remote positions could create imbalances in certain parts of Alberta.

Alberta's Supply Outlook Model: Education and Skills

Alberta’s Supply Outlook Model: Education and Skills forecasts the number of graduates across 8 major fields of study for different levels of schooling for Alberta’s population.

Alberta’s Supply Outlook Model: Indigenous, Visible Minorities, and People with Disabilities

The Alberta’s Supply Outlook Model: Indigenous, Visible Minorities, and People with Disabilities looks at the projected population sizes for the 3 sub-groups of Albertans by age and gender, as well as the Alberta population as a whole.

Oil Sands labour demands

The Oil Sands Construction, Maintenance and Operations Labour Demand Outlook to 2023 report was developed to provide accurate labour market information about workforce requirements for construction and oil sands jobs over the near-future.

Regional Occupational Demand Outlook

Current labour market information is essential to career practitioners, employers, teachers and students. This forecast highlights 140 occupations and how they are expected to grow over a 5-year period.

The report’s information is organized by occupation and by year, outlining:

1. the number of jobs in each occupation
2. the percentage of projected growth from 2021 through to 2025
3. the percentage of the labour market they account for

For each occupational category, there are 3 lines of information:

1. number of people within that occupation:
   • very large occupation groups are considered to be 10,000 people or more
   • large is 5,000 to 10,000
   • moderate is 1,000 to 5,000
   • small is 500 to 1,000
   • occupation groups less than 500 people are considered to be very small
2. percent change, reflecting the annual average growth projected for each occupation
3. percentage share in the labour market that the particular occupation accounts for

Regional occupational forecasts 2021-2025

• Banff / Jasper / Rocky Mountain House and Athabasca / Grande Prairie / Peace River Economic Region
• Calgary Economic Region
• Camrose / Drumheller Economic Region
• Edmonton Economic Region
• Lethbridge / Medicine Hat Economic Region
• Red Deer Economic Region
• Wood Buffalo / Cold Lake Economic Region

Short-Term Employment Forecast

The Short-Term Employment Forecast (STEF) provides a three-year overview of occupations expected to be in-demand during that period.

This forecast examines 516 occupations and ranks their demand prospects into these categories:

• high demand
• moderately high demand
• medium demand
• low demand

STEF does not show potential labour shortages. It only examines occupations expected to be in demand.

STEF helps bridge the gap between what is happening now in Alberta’s economy and the government’s 10-year, long-term labour forecast, the Occupational Demand and Supply Outlook 2021-30.

Contact

Connect with Labour Force Statistics:
Email: [email protected]