To provide Albertans with reliable, transparent information ahead of the Oct. 19 referendum, the University of Calgary's School of Public Policy was commissioned to write an independent report examining potential economic and financial impacts of Alberta separating from Canada. The final report considers two hypothetical scenarios to give Albertans a sense of the costs associated with separation:
- A “smooth” scenario in which negotiations with Canada are quick and favourable to Alberta.
- A “difficult” scenario in which negotiations are protracted and unfavourable to Alberta.
In both scenarios, the independent report shows the short-term impacts of potential separation would result in significant economic disruption and costs for Albertans. The report outlines that the cost of establishing a new country could range from $50 billion to $170 billion in the first five years following separation. These costs are in addition to impacts on economic growth and Alberta’s fiscal position, which is explored in the report.
“It has been a great opportunity for the school to help inform Albertans on such a critical issue. From the start, we were afforded full independence and academic freedom with this project, which was successful under a compressed deadline. The work includes some of the most comprehensive economic and fiscal data available, analyzed objectively by our team of experts led by Dr. Tim Sargent.”
Under the “difficult” scenario, limits on trade and market access could create lasting economic and fiscal challenges for both Alberta and Canada. Even after 20 years, employment could be nearly five per cent lower and Alberta’s economy more than 16 per cent smaller than if the province remained in Canada. Despite higher taxes, the government could face an ongoing annual budget deficit of more than $30 billion.
In the “smooth” scenario, Alberta may be able to maintain access to major trade markets, expand resource development and deliver some government services more efficiently. The report cautions, however, that any potential economic recovery could take many years following the disruption of separation and would depend on very specific conditions, including sustained high oil prices, that could not be guaranteed through negotiations.
Advisory panel assessment
An expert advisory panel, chaired by Dr. Jack Mintz, was appointed to review the report and prepare an independent assessment of the findings. The panel’s work adds a broader range of perspectives to the analysis, ensuring Albertans are equipped with the facts.
The advisory panel’s assessment underscore two key findings from the independent report: separation would involve significant short-term costs, and that the long-term economic and fiscal effects are highly uncertain. The panel also finds that the impacts of separation would extend beyond Alberta’s borders, causing significant harm to Canada’s economy.
“The panel concurs that separation results in short run economic costs for Alberta for uncertain net benefits in the longer run. However, we also stress that Canadians should be aware that Alberta's separation will undoubtedly harm Canada as well.”
Albertans can read the full report and the advisory panel assessment at: https://www.alberta.ca/advisory-panel-on-the-potential-impacts-of-separation. Eligible voters are encouraged to review the findings, consider the evidence and make an informed decision in the Oct. 19 referendum.
Quick facts
- Factors considered in the report include the costs of administering programs under federal jurisdiction, monetary policy, negotiations around Canadian debt and assets, labour mobility and international trade relationships.
Related information
Related news
- Informing Alberta’s future (June 12, 2026)
Media inquiries
Matthew Cassie
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587-984-2522
Director of Communications, Treasury Board and Finance