Alberta's finances have improved significantly with the 2026-27 first-quarter fiscal update putting the province on track for a $2-billion surplus. With year-end results for 2025-26 also expected to land in surplus, Alberta's government is on track to report five consecutive surpluses, with a sixth now in sight for 2026-27. The Alberta Heritage Savings Trust Fund is on track to meet or exceed the Budget 2026 forecasts of growing to $32.1 billion by 2026-27 year end, and is strongly tracking to meet Premier Danielle Smith’s goal of growing the fund to $35 billion by the end of 2027.
In February, the province projected a $9.4-billion deficit in Budget 2026. In just one quarter, Alberta’s government is reporting an $11.4-billion improvement to its fiscal position. The change is due to a more than $9.7-billion increase to non-renewable resource revenue driven by the increase in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, an additional $545 in corporate income tax, and a more than $1.4-billion increase in other revenues.
“Alberta has been given an opportunity and Alberta’s government will not waste it. Alberta's path forward will be built on our commitment to protect the services Albertans count on, keep spending under control, and manage taxpayer dollars with the discipline this moment calls for – so Alberta remains strong not just today, but for generations to come.”
Alberta’s investment attraction efforts have resulted in more major project investment decisions than in any year for decades, leaving the province well-positioned to weather challenges. This reflects how the work Alberta’s government has done to build a stronger economy, broader revenue base and greater fiscal stability is contributing to the province’s improved long-term outlook.
Strong activity in the energy sector, increased manufacturing and agriculture exports, progress on major projects and resilient consumer spending are also all contributing to economic growth. Real GDP is now expected to grow by 2.3 per cent in 2026 – a 0.5 percentage point increase from the budget forecast – and Alberta is still expected to outperform most other provinces. Momentum will continue into 2027 as investment continues to pick up, with real GDP forecast to grow 2.5 per cent.
Alberta’s strengthened fiscal position is positive news. However, ongoing volatility in oil prices and trade uncertainty continue to have global impacts, underscoring the importance of continued fiscal discipline.
Based on high oil prices in the last month of the 2025-26 fiscal year and strong market conditions for the Heritage Fund, Alberta’s government expects to report a fifth surplus at year-end. Alberta anticipates releasing the final year-end results and annual report in early fall, in line with most other provinces, once the Office of the Controller and the Auditor General have completed their work.
Key facts:
- Total revenue for 2026-27 is forecast at $86.3 billion, $11.7 billion more than Budget 2026.
- This is primarily due to an increase of $9.7 billion from budget in non-renewable resource revenue, to a forecast of $23 billion.
- The updated Q1 forecast for the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil for 2026-27 is US$73.50 per barrel, an increase of US$13 per barrel from the Budget 2026 forecast of US$60.50.
Related news
- Budget 2026: Focused on what matters (Feb. 26, 2026)
Related information
- 2026-27 First quarter fact sheet
- Learn more about Budget 2026 here: Budget | Alberta.ca