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‘Weekly updates from the Canadian Grain Commission (CGC) provide useful crop demand information,’ explains Blue.
The CGC numbers include movement of bulk crops through facilities licensed by the CGC and exclude container movement of crops as well as overland crop movement to the United States.
‘Crop year to date, non-durum wheat deliveries are up by 230,000 tonnes, or 4%,’ he says. ‘Canadian durum deliveries are up by 291,000 tonnes, or 20%.
‘Oat deliveries are up by 211,000 tonnes, barley deliveries are up by 436,000 tonnes and producer deliveries of canola are up by 834,000 tonnes, about 14%. Pea deliveries are 18% higher and lentil deliveries are more than double last year’s pace.’
Blue notes timely completion of the 2020 harvest has been a contributing factor to these crop movement numbers.
‘Exports of Canadian crops are also off to a great start this crop year,’ says Blue.
He says Canadian non-durum wheat exports are 27% higher than year ago to date while durum exports have now caught up to last year’s pace. Oat exports are running 26% higher while barley exports are more than double last year’s pace.
Canola exports to mid-November are 34% higher, and although not a large crop in Alberta, Canadian soybean exports are also up 34%. Pea exports are up by 24% and lentil exports are nearly double last year’s pace.
Image 1. Comparative crop exports to November 15, 2020
Blue adds Canadian domestic use of crops is also doing well so far this crop year. ‘Domestic use of wheat, durum and oats are all higher than year ago. Although domestic use of barley appears to be lower from the CGC data, direct barley sales to feedlots are not included and feeding demand has been strong.’
He adds canola crushing volume so far is almost as high as last year’s record pace. Strong crush margins continue to support bids from Canadian canola crushers.
‘The implication of these numbers,’ says Blue, ‘is that crop demand is strong and movement has been excellent. Most crop prices have risen dramatically since mid-August. This demand-driven market appears likely to support continued strong prices at least into the spring of 2021.’
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